Republican presidential candidates have been one-upping each other on abortion limits and bans, with participants in this week's GOP primary debate vowing to sign a federal ban on the procedure.
The Democrats' response has been to bury Republicans with their own words, including with a national ad the Biden-Harris campaign released Friday featuring clips of former President Donald Trump, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis and Sen. Tim Scott of South Carolina pledging to stop abortion – by punishing women who have one, in Trump's case.
Since the 2022 Supreme Court decision taking away guaranteed abortion rights, both parties have elevated the issue in their campaigns. And both think it will be a winner for them in 2024.
"These guys showed us this week they don’t have a clue about the power of women," President Joe Biden said on social media, releasing his and Vice President Kamala Harris' new ad. "They are about to find out."
The campaign is spending $25 million to run the ad online and in the battleground states of Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.
Former Vice President Mike Pence, meanwhile, said during Wednesday night's debate in Milwaukee that he is a "champion for life" who would sign a ban on abortion after 15 weeks. When Nikki Haley, a former U.S. ambassador who also opposes abortion, countered that the votes aren't there in the Senate to overcome a filibuster, Pence shot back, saying, "Consensus is the opposite of leadership."
DeSantis, meanwhile, bragged about his signing of a six-week abortion ban in Florida, while Scott said he would back the 15-week ban. In April, Scott said in an interview with NBC News that he would sign "the most conservative, pro-life” legislation into law."
That's an approach that plays very well with the GOP primary electorate, which largely opposes abortion. A recent CBS/YouGov poll found that 68% of Republican voters think abortion should be illegal in all or most cases.
And Republicans – like Democrats – aren't shying away from the issue.
“I was very pleased to see them talk about abortion,” RNC Chairwoman Ronna McDaniel told Fox News the morning after the debate. “Democrats used that in 2022. ... If our candidates aren’t able to fend a response and put out a response, we’re not going to win. They’re going to do it again in 2024. And I thought all of them did a really good job on that.”
But since the June 2022 ruling Dobbs v. Jackson Women's Health Organization, the pro-abortion rights side has become newly energized. While anti-abortion forces have had success in the courts (the South Carolina state Supreme Court this week upheld a near-total ban on abortion), abortion foes have been losing consistently when the matter is put directly before voters – a troubling trend for anti-abortion forces ahead of what is expected to be a highly competitive 2024 election.
Since Dobbs, voters in California, Michigan and Vermont approved referendums to enshrine abortion rights in the state constitutions, unsurprising for three states where Democrats are in control. But in three red states – Kansas, Kentucky and Montana – measures to reject guaranteed abortion rights were defeated.
Further, Ohio voters overwhelmingly this month rejected a measure that would require a supermajority of 60% to pass a state constitutional amendment. That means abortion rights advocates will have a much easier time winning a referendum on the ballot this fall to ensure abortion rights. Polling shows strong support for that measure.
More problematic for Republicans going forward – at least from an electoral perspective – is a slate of referendums proposed for 2024 state ballots. In Arizona, Florida, Maryland, Missouri, New York and South Dakota, advocates are pushing for votes to protect reproductive rights. Abortion foes are trying to get referendums on the ballot in Iowa, Nebraska and Pennsylvania to prohibit abortion or to state clearly that the state constitution does not guarantee the right to abortion.
The fate of those ballot initiatives (should activists indeed get the signatures required to get them on the ballot) may be secondary to another factor: voter turnout.
In Arizona, a state Biden won by a razor-thin 10,457 votes, the referendum could spur pro-abortion rights voters to go to the polls – perhaps providing a critical difference for an incumbent president who, polling indicates, does not inspire excitement among Democrats. The same may well be true in Pennsylvania, a state Biden won by 81,660 votes – about 0.2% of the voting electorate.
"I think what we’ve seen here is across partisan lines, in red, blue and purple states, voters have made themselves clear – they want to protect reproductive freedom," says Ally Boguhn, spokesperson for NARAL Pro-Choice America. "I do think we're going to continue to see this as something that will drive them to the polls."
Republicans argue that forging ahead with abortion bans, taking advantage of the free-for-all created by the Dobbs ruling, will motivate their voters as well.
Cindy Dahlgren, a spokesperson for the Center for Arizona Policy, which opposes the referendum enshrining abortion rights, says there will be "plenty of reasons turnout will be high in 2024," including inflation and the fact that it is a presidential year.
The proposed Arizona referendum, she says, goes too far.
"It would make regulating abortion virtually impossible and that is not where Arizonans are on abortion and why abortion law should be set by lawmakers who can make changes to the law as needed," Dahlgren says.
But polling indicates that Democrats have an edge on motivating their voters around the abortion issue.
A Kaiser Family Foundation survey in May found that 30% of voters will cast a ballot only for a candidate who agrees with them on abortion. Broken down, that includes 46% of Democrats, 23% of independents, and 20% of Republicans, suggesting Democrats are more likely to make abortion rights a litmus test issue.
Further, Democrats have an edge among self-described independents in the poll, with 36% of independents saying Democrats more closely represented their views on abortion and 13% saying Republicans' views on the issue were closer to their own.
Mary Owens, communications director for SBA Pro-Life America, says the anti-abortion movement needs to learn the lessons from Ohio to win next year.
"So far, in all of the state battles, our side has failed to take this approach, allowing the left and pro-abortion industry and allies to define the effort," Owens says. "We must define the issues at stake early and often with a simple message."
B | 你想了解最接地气的新加坡生活吗？这部连载故事将会带给你答案。本篇文章是《新加坡的周末游圣淘沙，烟花、烧烤…超浪漫的》的后续。艾米联系了Tony和Eric。Eric说已经约了朋友周末去柔佛新山，所以只有Tony能来。艾米已经离开公司了，雪莉最后终于招到一个新加坡女孩Dora。希望这次能做久一点，颜颜听到雪莉在自言自语。Dora是广东人，个子很矮小，眼睛大大的剪着短发，每天喜欢提一个小公文包。“是我老公给我的。
C | ”Dora好像刚刚结婚，还沉浸在新婚的喜悦当中。“哪天有空，我请你和安妮到我家去玩，我教你做我们广东的三色蛋哈。
D | ”Dora性格很开朗，加上每天搭同方向的班车，很快就和颜颜她们熟悉起来。
E | 淡滨尼那场工已经开始了，因为有主承包商那边迈克的耐心帮助，公司里的Tony也很配合，一切还算顺利。“等这场工结束，我一定要好好请你吃一顿饭。我有这么多问题，我有时候问得自己都不好意思了。”说完工作上的事，颜颜对迈克说道。“没关系，没关系。尽管问我好了。我刚来的时候也这样的。这边的图纸比国内的细很多。”迈克还是一口醇厚的标准普通话。迈克告诉颜颜，他大学毕业后在国内的设计院工作不到一年就来新加坡了，已经快5年时间。怪不得英文说得那么好，而且是地道的新加坡英文。“我还没有拿到绿卡，公司巳经帮我申请三次了，而且我每次去移民厅，见到的居然是同一个官员，拒绝信也是他的签名。可能他觉得我本科学校不太好。你呢？你的学校应该好申请的。”迈克在电话那头说。“我才来没多久，而且我们公司老板要等三年合约满了才签字。”“这样啊？我们公司倒是希望我们这几个中国的建筑师早点拿到绿卡。希望下次在移民厅不要再碰到前面那个官员了。
F | ”迈克告诉颜颏和他一起进公司的另一个北京男孩已拿到绿卡，而他负责颜颜公司的另一场工。“他的那场工好像快结束了，他最近应该会去你们公司的。”“哦，那场工可能是阿林负责的。
G | ”放工吋间到了，颜颜今天手头上的工作已全部做完，她收拾好东西早早就下了楼。Cn莫还在那逗着那条大黄狗。看到颜颜下来，他笑着对颜颜说：“今天怎么穿着水晶鞋啊，要去见王子吗？”颜颜看了看自己脚上的彩色半透明塑料高跟凉鞋，这个还是临出国前俊儿陪她去买的。
H | “这是从中国带过来的。”颜颜对Cn莫说。“中国的东西就是漂亮，等有机会我一定要去中国看看。”颜颜这才知道Cn莫还没有去过中国。怪不得他上次居然问中国有没有电热水壶，因为新加坡商场里售卖的家用小电器大都是日本和韩国制造的。“对了颜颜，中元节马上到了。中国过不过中元节？”Cn莫又问。“我记得在中国，农历7月15这天，住在乡下的人家会给家中故去的人烧纸钱。多数人家这天晚上是不允许家里的小孩子出门的，而是早早就闭门休息了。日本的盂兰盆节好像也是以这天为中心的3天左右。”颜颜答。“我们新加坡是整个农历七月都是中元节，很热闹的。到时候你就知道了。一般庙宇附近会举办大型宴会，如果有人请你去吃的话，中间那桌干万不要去坐。另外组屋楼下有歌台演岀，记住第一排贴着金银纸的座位也不能坐的，那都是留给好兄弟的。
K | 颜颜还碰到了好几个从中国过来的歌手。“每年过来一趟，收入还是不错的。”其中一个歌手对颜颜说。
L | 颜颜比较喜欢去看标福物。各种福物玲琅满目，有发财树、金银山、旺梨等。甚至有水晶矿石。她好佩服那个喊标的人。这“喊标”可真是个技术活。喊标人不仅声音洪亮，还很会活跃气氛，掌控节奏。他的华语、福建话、广东话、英语、马来话完全自由切换，看到有印度同胞来，还冷不防来上几句淡米尔语。“太厉害了！”颜颜对孙唯说。“这里大部分华人都会几种语言啊。”孙唯好像并没有觉得意外。其间有公司客户请颜颜和孙唯去参加寺庙里举办的中元会。
M | 因为有上次不愉快的经历，颜颜有些犹豫。“这个客户人很好的，他每年都会花很多钱去标福物，因为这些标福物的钱最后大都是捐给慈善组织的。
N | ”孙唯说。颜颜最后按捺不住心中的好奇去赴了宴，她发现除了一些祭拜仪式，整个宴会就像是好朋友之间一年一度的大聚会。
o | CY丨编辑CH丨编审开荣南洋丨来源简玛丨作者。
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